|
|
Gold Prices Analyzed |
Below: Historical Gold Prices. Here is a graph of London Gold Fixings AM/PM with 55-day simple moving average.
Below: Daily US Dollar changes of London Gold Fixing with Gold Prices
This graph graph attempts to show the volatility of Gold prices and the frequency with which this market experiences price shocks. Each of the two lines in this graph are 2 day simple moving averages of data. The first line represents the price of London Gold with each data consisting of 4 gold prices: today's and yesterday's AM and PM gold prices. These 4 prices are averaged to arrive at today's gold price. The second line is simply the change in the calculated prices from yesterday to today in US Dollars. For example, today's London Gold Price on this graph is the average of today's and yesterday's AM and PM prices. The daily change is the difference between yesterday's 2 day average of London's Gold AM/PM prices and today's calculated price. The reason for the 2 day average is an attempt to "smooth" the data slightly.
In addition, notice that the two scales are in US Dollars and not percent. The left side of the graph sows the amount of daily change in USD and the right side of the graph shows the daily price of gold in USD.
Also notice the frequency of the shocks (large peaks) that Gold experiences every several months.
Below: Graph of moving sum of 13 most recent day's percentage changes of the average of London's Gold AM/PM Fixing. First the average of the AM/PM Gold Fixing is calculated. Then the percent change is calculated from the previous day. The most recent 13 days are summed. This value changes daily when today's data is added and the oldest is dropped off. It’s a moving sum of the percent changes rather than averaging the percent changes. The scale shows the percent changes of London Gold with 13 being equivalent to 0 percent change. By the looks of this chart, Gold seems to bounce within a 5% to 8% band most of the time. And as of late, these price movements have been oscillating above 13 to 13.05 or between 0% and 5%.
Below: Graph of moving sum of 5 most recent day's percentage changes of the average of London's Gold AM/PM Fixing. The same calculations were used as cited above except only 5 days were used instead of 13 days.
Below: Graph of Differential between 55 day Simple Moving Average and London Gold Fix AM/PM Average and its standard deviation.
Below: Graph of Differential between 18 day Simple Moving Average and London Gold Fix AM/PM Average and its standard deviation.
